Kiwi Sports Blog's Annual NRL Finals Preview

Last year the Warriors qualified 5th on the table, following a brilliant second half of the season. We travelled to the home ground of a fearsome Gold Coast Titans team (how things change in one short season), where we lost a fight we were hardly in.  The rest of the weekend, freak results worked against us. A raging hot Raiders team in 7th place beat the Panthers, then the Greatest Game of All Time happened and the Roosters upset the Tigers from 6th place.  The Warriors, as the second-lowest ranked loser, went home from 5th place. Loyal fans everywhere were outraged.

Stink, ao.

This year we have qualified in 6th against (in my opinion) a much tougher opponent – the Broncos. Thankfully this year we are a much stronger side than last season.  We’re a legitimate powerhouse with legitimate franchise players and legitimate title aspirations. Everyone at Kiwi Sports Blog is hugely optimistic about the upcoming six weeks (there’s also that Massive Penalty Party being hosted by New Zealand over the same period, plus the return of the greatest show on turf this weekend). And that’s why, despite a hiatus of nearly four months, the printing presses at KSB headquarters are back in action for The Second Annual Kiwi Sports Blog NRL Finals PreviewTM.

Click here for the Kiwi Sports Blog Rugby World Cup Preview



(1) Melbourne v (8) Newcastle

Your deserved 2011 Dally M Medalist.

Last year the Panthers, Raiders and Titans were among the best teams in the comp. This year, in a season of turnarounds, they came 12th, second to last, and dead last, respectively.

Also last year, the Storm came dead last because they had been cheating scum for the last 8 or so years. This year they have somehow managed to come first.  Here's why:

• Ron Gauci. After the salary cap scandal Gauci was made CEO of the Storm. To clean up the books and fit under the cap he had to make some hard decisions in terms of which players to keep.  The primary victim was potential player of the century Greg Inglis.  Then Inglis got fat, got unfit, and ceased to care about league.  Eight games into the season most people wouldn't have been surprised if Inglis announced a transfer to Collingwood.  To replace him he signed Dane Nielsen, who turned out to be a legitimate quality centre.  He also cut loose two big useless pieces of dead weight named Brett (White and Finch).  But we're not giving Gauci that much credit though, since he also gave away the future best prop in the game, Aiden Tolman, and we're not even sure that Gauci is the one who makes the player decisions.  Moving on.
  

  

  Greg Inglis, believe it or not.

• Somehow, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater have figured out to play league better than anyone else on the planet.  Despite Benji Marshall's second half and Jonathan Thurston/Darren Lockyer's first half, over the whole season Billy Slater has been the best player and Cameron Smith the second best. There was controversy about Slater taking the Dally M Medal over Benji.  And while I'd love Benji to win it as much as any Kiwi would, Slater has simply been consistently better this season.  Benji took over 6 or 7 games late in the season and singlehandedly won them for the Tigers.  Slater has been doing it all year.  And no one has orchestrated the game better than Cameron Smith.  When two players like that have that kind of year together, the Minor Premiership is only the start.  Amazingly though, that still doesn't make them the favourites for the title.

By contrast, the Knights are one of the worst teams to ever make the top 8.  As someone commented on the Lone Scout facebook page, "You know you're in trouble when you're a one-man team, and that one man is Kurt Gidley."  There's only one reason the Knights don't lose by 50 here and that reason is Akuila the Thriller, who is rivalling Manu for winger with the biggest impact beyond his position.  But they still have hope.  For the 2012 Knights, hope is spelt B-E-N-N-E-T-T.

The pick: Storm -10

Wayne Bennett, pictured without lapdog Darius Boyd.

 


(2) Manly v (7) North Queensland

Sorry to bring this up again, Cowboys fans

Three weeks ago this game would barely be worth writing about.  The Cows were somehow limping along without Jonathan Thurston and the Sea Eagles were rampaging through the league like Hurricane Irene through Brooklyn.



Then Adam Blair brought back the biff. As entertaining as it was, David Gallop was in attendance at Brookvale that day and he was not impressed. He called up his favourite set of brothers, the Stewarts, and told them to find alternative entertainment for a number of weeks (1 for Brett, 3 for Glenn).


Losing the Stewart brothers is huge for Manly, so they can thank their recently employed legal team for Brett only getting one week for a cheap shot to rival the cheapest shot of all time. Glenn, along with Anthony Watmough, is the cog that holds the team together. Remember the Warriors without Micheal Luck? The Sea Eagles aren’t quite that bad without Glenn but it’s the same effect.  And Brett lifts their attack from ‘Scary’ to ‘Lady Gaga as a Man’ levels – including that vaunted right edge attack, where he would gleefully slot himself in and create all sorts of overlaps. This year Jarryd Hayne and Billy Slater have been better than Brett at joining the backline from fullback, but no one else (with apologies to Kevin Locke and Matt Bowen).


Also, technically this didn’t happen in the last three weeks, but I only just discovered that the NRL has gone and changed the rules on us again.  The sneaky bastards decided last December that first round Finals games would be held at the Home City, not the Home Ground (previously only second round games were Home City). This means Manly has to play at the SFS, instead of the most impregnable fortress in the league, Brookvale Oval, where they have a casual 10-0 record.*  Away, they are 7-5, which is still pretty good, but they are a different team at Brooky. Some would say unbeatable.

So just like in real life, the Sea Eagles have been downgraded from Hurricane Irene to Tropical Storm Irene.  And as we all know, Cowboys (basically glorified farmers) are no match for bad weather.  But it'll be close.

The pick: Cowboys +6.5


* NB: Manly has had one home loss this season, in Round 21 against the Tigers. But that was at Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford.  Needless to say KSB was not aware of that development in Round 21 and lost a not insignificant amount of money banking on the fact that Manly were too good at home.

(3) Brisbane v (6) New Zealand

Brisbane are charging into the playoffs, having won six in a row.  We've had two losses in our last nine games, with one being a game we could have won (the loss to Brisbane in Round 22) and one that we should have won (the loss to St George in Round 25).  It took a while, but the boys finally worked out how to play together, the coach finally worked out to drop Brett Seymour, and our glue players (Mannering, Luck, Rapira, Packer, Lillyman, Maloney) worked out how to complement our flair players  (Mateo, Johnson, Locke, Manu).

One of these things is not like the other.

Five things that happened this season that, if you told me them before the season, I would have called you crazy as batshit:

• Lewis Brown will not play a big part in the 2011 Warriors season.  After the first 8-10 weeks he was in contention for our player of the year.  Then suddenly there was no room for him in the team anymore.  And while I've missed him, the team surprisingly has not.  Put this one down to the rise and rise of Elijah Taylor.
• We would have no need for Nathan Friend next year.  Aaron Heremaia has become a brilliant player in the second half, with Alehana Mara and Pita Godinet being more than adequate backups.  Heremaia was shaping up well last year but has made a leap this year to be one of the elite hookers.  And even though Friend is that rare breed of player that can play 80 minutes at hooker, a Heremaia/Mara or even Mara/Godinet duo next year wouldn't have been bad at all.
• Shaun Berrigan will become our best centre, and Simon Mannering would play in the second row more than in the centres.  Without Berrigan turning in a brilliant year out of position, our pack would have lacked the defensive cohesion provided by Mannering.  I still don't really know how Berrigan has held it together in the centres against some of the talent other teams have opposite him.
• James Maloney will be one of the best five standoffs in the league.  The list, in order: 1. Benji, 2. Darren Lockyer, 3. Maloney, 4. Kieran Foran, 5. A bunch of others.  That bunch includes Jamie Soward, who has gone downhill like the American economy in the last few weeks, Greg Bird, who might have just been unable to do anything on a terrible team, Jarred Mullen, who still hasn't emerged as the force he is supposed to be, John Sutton, who probably wasn't the best guy - attitude wise - to pair up with Greg Inglis, Jarryd Hayne, who is not a standoff, and Terry Campese/Todd Carney, who have had rough years and might well be back in the top 5 next year (Thurston and Cronk miss the top 5 because they count as halfbacks).
• Krisnan Inu will play lazy, will get kind of fat, and will eventually be dropped by the coach for unknown reasons.  Oh, wait.  Could probably have predicted this one

But back to the game.  Brisbane have lost Josh Hoffman, who has been outstanding for them and means Kevin Locke isn't an automatic shoe-in to the Kiwis team (don't worry, he's still the overwhelming favourite).  However, heres an interesting factoid - the most lethal side attack in the NRL this year (statistically) has not belonged to the Dragons with Creagh/Gaz/Nightingale or Scott/Cooper/Morris, nor has it been the Sea Eagles with Stewart/Lyon/Hopoate, nor the Doggyz with Idris/Morris/Turner, and not the Bunnies with Sutton/Inglis/Merritt.  It is the Broncos' right side with Thaiday/Hodges/Yow Yeh.

Thankfully Thaiday is out suspended for a week, but the bad news is that Hodges is back.  I'd happily contend with Thaiday's ridiculous workrate, impenetrable defence and unpredictable attack over Hodges' terrifying gamebreaking ability.  Here's hoping Joel Moon finishes his return to our hearts and takes out Hodges' knee again.

Meanwhile, feast your eyes on this (from the NRL's casualty ward article):

Going straight to the spank bank.

We get Manu back - as happy as that news is, it's bad news for Krisnan Inu who has had a hot n' cold two week cameo: terrible against the Dragons, electric against the Cowboys.  Surely someone can tell Inu that if he plays like the Cowboys game every week, there's no way in hell Bill Tupou would ever start ahead of him. He is running out of time - this season - to get the message.

With a full strength team, we should be too strong for the Broncos, especially if Mateo, our halves, and our props continue the run of form they've been in lately.

But wait, you say - this is at Suncorp Stadium, a fortress.  Sure, it's a fortress for Kangaroos games, but KSB's stats team found the stunning stat that the Broncos have won only one of seven finals matches at Suncorp.  So that's why the Warriors are paying only $2.20.

The pick: Warriors +2.5 (Obviously)

(4) Wests v (5) St George

Spot the C*** not smiling.

On paper this looks like the best matchup in a first round full of fantastic matchups.  But it’s not.  The Tigers are the best team in the league at the moment, have won their last 8, and are second only to Melbourne at closing out a lead in the last 20 minutes.  The Dragons are falling apart, and although the Warriors and Panthers might have played them back into form in the last two rounds, they’re simply no longer a contender. 

It’s no secret that the anointed one Wayne Bennett is not a big fan of props in his teams, as mentioned here a while ago.  And even though Paul Gallen might have singlehandedly changed the position forever in Origin, the Dragons seem to be a bit of a reminder that props are still a vital part of quality teams.  The way to beat the Dragons is to muscle them up front, preventing Jamie Soward and their lethal backline from getting any front foot ball.  The Warriors did a fairly good job through our propping quartet, but then Lance Hohaia came on, screwed up all the inside marking and we lost the game.

But this isn't the NBA; there's no rule here like "You can't win without a big man".  It's perfectly possible to win the NRL without good props.  You just need outstanding second rowers and a good running/kicking game.  The Dragons have both of those, but they've been in decline lately.

The Tigers have Bryce Gibbs and Keith Galloway up front – two big units that play a physical game on both sides of the ball.  Along with Benji’s genius, Farah’s creativity and kicking, one of the best backrows in the comp, and the surprisingly talented Tigers backline, they should be far too strong for the Dragons here.

The only spanner in the works is the stupid Home City rule again, meaning this game is at ANZ Stadium instead of the Lilyfield Rectangle, where only three games have been played this season.  The Dragons Army (and their banners) travel well, so this is hardly a home game for Benji’s Boys.  Amazingly, Centrebet seems to have read a little bit too much into the neutral stadium, the Dragons’ last two wins, and the fact that Wayne Bennett WINS FOOTBALL GAMES, and has made the Tigers $2.20 underdogs.  Remember, the Tigers have won their last 8, and they have Benji Marshall. Jump on those odds.

Still, expect to see Soward shown up again as overrated.

The pick: Tigers +2.5

Beyond the first round

Melbourne and Manly will get the first round byes, which is great news for Glenn Stewart.  The Warriors will travel home to a sold out Mt Smart Stadium with the only World Cup game in Auckland that weekend being Australia v Ireland at Eden Park on the Saturday.  Their opponents will be the Dragons, fresh off a crushing and demoralising defeat.  It will be a close game, with the Dragons dominating attack out wide and the Warriors forwards mercilessly pounding the ball up front.  But this current Warriors team doesn’t lose at Mt Smart, and we won’t lose this one.

The other game will see the Tigers in ANZ Stadium again facing the Broncos, which should have been the Grand Final.  The two best teams at the moment will produce an absolutely fantastic game which should rival last year’s Tigers/Roosters game in entertainment value.  With Hodges and Thaiday both back for this one, and the Tigers being too unpredictable, it’s just too close to call.  Flip a coin.  But make sure you watch the game.

The Preliminary Finals couldn’t be worked out better for the Warriors.  Last time we made it this far, in 2008, we lost to Manly.  Thankfully this year we’ll face the Storm who, although the game will be in Melbourne, we seem to have the edge over in recent years.  With his definitive ‘announcing to the world I’m here’ game, Shaun “It puts the Laotian on its skin” Johnson will run circles around Widdop and Cronk, with Aaron Heremaia playing 70 minutes and making 60 tackles, and Kevin Locke out-Slatering Billy Slater.  We’ll be in the Grand Final for the second time.

The other Preliminary Final, between Manly and either Brisbane or Wests at ANZ Stadium will be another cracker of a game.  But Manly will lose it.

The Grand Final is scheduled for October 2^nd, the day of the last pool games in the Rugby World Cup. Anything could happen.  Including a Warriors Premiership.

Who gets the Halberg, a successful Warriors or successful All Blacks team?