Kiwi Sports Blog's Annual NRL Finals Preview

Every year, dating back to 2010, KSB has offered its opinion of the NRL Finals.  The greatest postseason in sports is upon us, and this year the Warriors are back in the mix.  Will the number 8 team win for the third year in a row?  Will someone as high as fourth on the table (the Titans) be knocked out?  Will any Storm players watch the games with a hint of nostalgia?  What what-ifs are in play this Finals series?  Kiwi Sports Blog will sort it out.



(1) St George Illawarra Dragons v (8) Manly Sea Eagles

That's right, we're doing this in reverse order, leaving the most important game for last.  It seems pretty clear that there is no way Manly will carry on the fine 8 beating 1 tradition championed by the '08 Warriors and '09 Eels.  When you get walked all over by the Bulldogs, you are not playing your best football.  Who cares that it was the emotional final game for The General and Noddy, you have to take the gimme two points to secure your place in the Finals.

Happily for Manly fans, the Rabbits couldn't quite get over the mound later that night against the Dragons, who dispatched them handily.  They should carry on their rampage through the competition with a first round win and second round bye.  Even though the Broncos' ridiculous streak of 18 straight years of Finals appearances is now over, Wayne Bennett is keeping it alive, extending his streak to 19.  He also picks up his second back to back minor premiership (also in 97 and 98).  They might as well just rename the weird looking NRL trophy after him now and get it over with.  The Dragons should be too strong by far for Manly - the best thing about this game will be the ingenious banner puns that Dragons supporters have perfected.

Manly pulled out all the stops to beat the Bulldogs and still couldn't get it done.  But they are now bearing the consequences, with Matai out for 7 weeks.  Now I'm not saying the tackle didn't justify this (he should have been sent off, the idiot), but it seems like some Kiwi-baiting is going on.  That ban is just long enough to rule him out of the Kiwis squad for the Four Nations.  Those malicious bastards.

The Big What-If: What if star fullback Brett Stewart resisted his animalistic urges in the pre-season and didn't commit sexual assault.  What followed was a media circus, with Stewart rightfully widely condemned, and then karma played its hand.  Stewart was knocked unconscious and out for the season by a rampaging Lote Tuqiri in the very first game.   It was one of the quickest karmic turnarounds ever, and even as it was happening everyone knew why.  Manly could have continued the mini-dynasty they had going.  Instead, they will be knocked out in the first round.

The pick: Dragons will win, but the line is a little too big, so Manly +16

(2) Penrith Panthers v (7) Canberra Raiders

The Raiders are hot.  They are hotter than November 23rd, the day of Miley Cyrus' 18th birthday.  They are hotter than the beach in Fiji that the Storm players are now comfortably relaxing on.  They are hotter than Mel Gibson's popularity in Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama.  They're even hotter than Kirk Penney when he gets on a hot shooting streak in the FIBA championships (and that's as hot as you can get).  Coming into the Finals with five straight wins, they are up against the Panthers who have just dismantled the hopeless Sharks.  Penrith have won 3 straight, and are 9-3 at home, tied for best home record with St George, Wests, and Melbourne.

But this is no cakewalk like the Sea Eagles.  Penrith will be without captain Petrol Sevencentsalitre, still serving a suspension, and without try scoring machine, athletic freak fullback Lachlan Coote.  To fill Coote's spot, winger Michael Gordon is moved to the back, with Sandor Earl on the wing.  Who is Sandor Earl?  I have no idea.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a sneaky try in this match with that backline and that kicking game.  The Panthers are definitely not at full strength.  And like the Eels last year, the Raiders are the team to be feared, and Penrith probably wouldn't have minded playing the sixth placed Roosters instead.  I'm picking an upset.

A minor, but humourous what-if: What if Andrew Johns hadn't described Greg Inglis as a black c*nt, resulting in Timana Tahu walking out on NSW and Joel Monaghan being called up to replace him.  The Big Ranga has had a bit of a strange old representative career.  His Origin debut was in the deciding game of 2008, where he couldn't defend Israel Folau and let in two tries to lose the series.  His test career for Australia ended when his brain exploded in the World Cup Final, taking out Lance Hohaia and giving away a penalty try that marked the end of the Aussie comeback.  And his Origin appearance this year was a massive loss, with five tries coming down his side and winning the series for Queensland.  The lesson looks to be, don't select Joel Monaghan for representative duty, because he is cursed.  But he redeems himself with his Canberra Raiders profile page.  I especially like his Britney Spears and American Pie references.

The pick: Raiders +5.5

(3) Wests Tigers v (6) Sydney Roosters

What a great match up this is.  Hopefully the Australian selectors have their heads on right, and select Todd Carney (who is just coming off a hat-trick at the Dally M awards - Dally M medal, Provan Summons medal, and Dally M five-eighth) at five-eighth if Lockyer turns out to be still injured for the Four Nations.  In this game, we get a preview of that match up, with Benji Marshall facing off against Carney.  Since moving Anasta to lock and Minichiello back to fullback, the Roosters have looked like a perfectly put together league side.  Unfortunately their performance against a shell of a Cowboys team in round 26 was terrible.  If they won in a blowout, as they should have, they would have pipped the Warriors for the fifth spot and been able to avoid the Tigers.  But even so, they are an outstanding side.  They have scoring options everywhere, and it helps that their New Zealander backs - Kenny-Dowall and Perritt - are in raging hot form.  They look like they will be anchoring one side of the Kiwis line, with the other side filled by the Beast and Steve Matai Junior Sau or Zeb Taia - would have been Matai except for his suspension KRRGRRRRRD!!SADDA!FLKJ (hopefully there is no Jason Nightingale instead of Perritt, or Jerome Ropati instead of either center).

As for the Tigers, they are pretty much unbeatable at home.  Their fan support is huge, and when Benji gets it going, with the crowd playing off his every move, you can write the game off and chalk up a blowout.  In addition he has just been crowned the Good Guy of the Month.  Isn't that nice.  Think the Roosters can walk into Lilyfield Rectangle up against the Good Guy of the Month and a fanatical crowd, and march out victorious?  I don't think so.  This isn't the year for the Roosters, but with the young foundation of players they have, particularly with the best young halves pairing in the league, they should win another premiership in the next few years.

An Injury What-if (you might think Brett Stewart was an injury what-if as well - it wasn't, it was a sexual assault what-if): What if Taniela Tuiaki wasn't injured for the whole season?  Seriously, what if the Tigers' already great backline had Chewie out on one wing and Lote on the other?  First, I think it is pretty clear that they would score at least 40 points a game.  Second, Wade McKinnon might never have gone to the Tigers, meaning the Warriors would have kept him on the bench and missed out on breakout games from guys like Lewis Brown, Bill Tupou, Jerome Ropati the fullback, and Lewis Brown again (because he had such a big breakout).  Third, Beau Ryan would never have emerged as the heir apparent to Matty Johns on the footy show.  And fourth, Benji would have smashed the record for most cut out balls thrown in a season.  They were one of the most fun teams to watch this season, and they could have been even more entertaining.

The pick: Tigers (pick)

(4) Gold Coast Titans v (5) New Zealand Warriors

The big one.  And not to take anything from the Titans - they did just beat the Tigers to close the season out.  They are a dominant side, and have been since Round 1 when they ran over the Warriors.  BUT!  Scott Prince has a niggling injury to a knee ligament, which limited his time in round 26 but didn't stop him from slotting the winning goal.  A look at the Titans lineup just screams weapons, all across the field.  They have the leagues best ginger in Brad Meyers.  They have some top notch workhorses in Anthony Laffranchi and Ashley Harrison.  But the most feared player for the Warriors, apart from the obvious ones, should be winger Kevin Gordon.  He looks to be easily the fastest man in the NRL, and will turn the Beast in knots if we allow him.  We have Locke on the other wing instead of the Mini Beast this week, and Locke should be able to keep pace, but Gordon is bigger than him and will still be a mismatch.  Not to say that shutting down Kevin Gordon is the answer (obviously it is shutting down Prince, Campbell and Rogers), but we need to keep the speedster quiet.

As for the Warriors, I have already gushed a-plenty about them this season (here, here, and here).  But honestly, what a season!  They were universally panned by Australian 'experts' and expected to get the club's first wooden spoon.  Instead we are heading for our sixth Finals, with the team in such form that a deep run could be on the cards.  With the amount of talent that has been sidelined at some point in the season, the story of success can be read in the players who stepped up to fill those holes.  Price was replaced ably by Rapira and Packer, with Matulino and Royal being good backups.  When Rapira went down as well it looked bleak but the props held together thanks to a superhuman series of games from Russell Packer.  Mannering hit the deck and Luck (thankfully back this week) stepped up as captain, while Lillyman/Latimore/Matulino did their best to fill the second row spot.  Brett Seymour took half the season off, and Isaac John materialised as the next big thing.  Various guys greatly overperformed, like James Maloney, Lewis Brown and Aaron Heremaia, while some of our stars had career years - Manu, Mannering, Luck, Hohaia.

But the best thing is that the Warriors have finally become a proper league team, that is built the way a team should be.  We don't need to rely on gimmick offence strategies built around offloads or double-arounds like in previous years.  Instead we have a backline full of gamebreakers and a superb aerial game spearheaded by the Beast.  Our forward pack treats every defensive set like there is a creche full of newborns behind them to protect, not just a tryline.  In short, the team is clinical, and is all about getting the win, with as little unnecessary flamboyance and jazz as possible.

Despite Skilled Park quickly becoming one of the fortresses in the league, I still think the Warriors can come out of there with a win.  But both teams in this matchup should be safe, since I can't really see both the Roosters and Sea Eagles winning, meaning they will be the teams going home unless the Raiders lose too.

A Massive What-If: What if Ivan Cleary was fired after last year's terrible season?
I don't even want to think about it.

The pick: Warriors +5.5

Second Round

So that means my predictions for the second round are:
Dragons - bye
Tigers - bye
Warriors v Panthers at Mt Smart Stadium
Raiders v Titans at Canberra Stadium

Once again I am backing the lower seeded teams, with explosive crowds at both stadiums willing the teams to victory.

Third Round

Warriors v Tigers at ANZ Stadium
Raiders v Dragons at ANZ Stadium

The NRL will be licking their lips at the prospect of two of the currently ranked top 3 going through to a second round bye, since they will play their home games at the Regional Venue, which is ANZ Stadium for all Sydney teams.  Hello, 80,000 seat sell out, three games in a row.  And then of course the Warriors will go on to beat the Dragons in the Grand Final and gloriously win the Premiership, leading to Steve Price being elected PM with Cleary as his Minister of Everything, thousands of happy kiwis feeling like they can never top this feeling and committing suicide, the Rugby World Cup next year being renamed the Vodafone Warriors Rugby World Cup and the Skytower being renamed the Manu Vatuvei.  But my analysis may have been clouded back at the Second Round stage.

Kiwi Sports Blog accepts no responsibility for any lives destroyed by Gamblor relying on the picks in this article.