Rugby World Cup (Betting) Preview

After long years of waiting we are mere hours away from the first kickoff.  This is not going to be a preview of the games, or the venues, or the All Blacks squad.  Instead, because Centrebet and TAB have really stepped up their game with all sorts of bets available to the punter with no self-restraint, here are some of my favourites:

This photo has no relevance. Hilarious expressions though!

Samoa to progress from Pool D (TAB): $4

I can't understand why Wales is paying only $1.30 to progress.  The game between Samoa and Wales in Hamilton will be one of the highlights of the pool stages, with Samoa looking to record a third World Cup victory over the Welsh.  Perhaps TAB is banking on the fact that while Fiji won't trouble Wales too much, they will bring it to another level in a sold-out Eden Park on a sunny Sunday afternoon against Samoa - another highlight game.  Plus Wales has a bit of a track record of being upset in World Cups.

But even taking that into account, I'd expect Wales and Samoa to be fairly even, more of a $2.00 to $2.40 split.  Odds haven't been released yet for their head to head matchup but if it looks like the pool odds then KSB will be hopping firmly on the Samoa points start train.

Most tournament tries Israel Dagg/Zac Guildford - Israel Dagg (TAB): $1.95

More odds I don't understand.  Guildford has been dropped from the squad with Richard Kahui and Isaia Toeava being preferred on the wings.  The danger here is that Guildford picks up a bunch in the easy beat games against Japan and Canada but there's a couple of reasons I think Dagg's a safe bet here.

• We're in a fairly tough pool, by comparison to other Cups.  France and Tonga are games we have to legitimately worry about and will probably field our best sides for.  At the moment, Dagg's the starting fullback for both these games.
• Graham Henry has been fairly outspoken about not operating a rotation policy. If that means the squad named this week with Dagg at fullback is the squad for all the pool games, fantastic.
• Guildford's had a few chances now.  It's pretty likely he will start at least one of the Japan/Canada games, but he won't play the full game with Cory Jane, Kahui and Toeava floating around.  As cruel as it would be, if Guildford has any more terrible games he should be swapped out for Sitiveni Sivivatu or Hosea Gear (KSB endorses Gear).

Obviously Dagg has to get over his leg niggle for this to be a good bet, but he will, and these odds are too good to not jump on now.

NZ total tournament drop goals - over 1.5 (TAB): $1.90

We'll hit two drop goals.  At least.  Dan's been working on them.

Highest scoring pool match - Australia v Russia (TAB): $3.20

The only other two contenders are NZ v Japan and South Africa v Namibia.  We can rule out NZ v Japan because, 1995 excepted, we know the All Blacks don't know how to turn it on in pool games.  TAB is just dangling that one out there for people who want to bet that the current squad will have their eyes on the 1995 record.  But Japan is a much better side now.

South Africa v Namibia is a good chance.  But since being beaten 142-0 in 2003 the Namibians have improved, plus you get the feeling South Africa will start to use the game for vital Francois Steyn 45 metre drop goal practice once they get a good lead.  Hard fought local derby resulting in a close game, anyone? Nah, me neither.

By the process of elimination that leaves us with Australia.  Call it a hunch, but if Genia, Cooper, Beale and Ioane get going then this game will be a massive blowout.  Conversely, I think backing South Africa to be the first team to score 100 points is a good option at $5.50 - the Australia v Russia game isn't until October 1st.  Once again though, this assumes New Zealand can't put 100 points on Japan on September 18th - a risky proposition.

Argentina v England points start - Argentina +11.5 (TAB): $2

Argentina is an outside chance to win this game. 11.5 is about a try too much.

Awesome Foursome - Four Favourites (Aus, NZ, SA, Eng) to win pools (Centrebet): $2.07

Just kidding. This is what the bookies call a sucker's bet. Don't get me wrong, its a lock that the four favourites win their pools.  But go to TAB instead and put it on a multi which pays $2.22, not this prop bet paying $2.07.

Australia Top Try Scorer - Digby Ioane (Centrebet): $3.75

Lock it in. Lock it in lock it in lock it in.

Rugby World Cup 2011 Winner - New Zealand (Centrebet): $1.70

LOCK IT IN. Easy money.