With ten games to go in the season, the Warriors once again have it all to do to play Finals football. Along with the Eels, we are the perennial bum boys of the NRL - we come from behind. The NRL stats man has concluded that the magic points number to make the eighth spot will be 28. Being on 18 points, we need to win five of our remaining ten - not a big ask for the second half chargers that are the Warriors. But there are a couple of things making this task harder.
We have a terrible points differential of -53 - the worst of any team in the top 10. Most of the time the final spot comes down to this tiebreaker, which probably means that we will have to end up on 29 or 30 points to make the finals. Our main challengers for the eighth spot - the Eels, Roosters, and Tigers - have differentials of -17, -13, and 5, respectively. A couple of games could drastically change the differential column in our favour, and we will probably need it.
We have no byes left. However five of the other teams contesting for our playoff spot still have these free two points awaiting them. With bye points added in, the table looks a lot more imposing when you realise that three of the five teams we are equal with on 18 points (Broncos, Bunnies and Eagles) have another bye yet to come.
The table with bye points added:Dragons 28
Panthers 24
Titans 22
Rabbitohs 20 (PD 74)
Broncos 20 (PD 29)
Sea Eagles 20 (PD 28)
Tigers 20 (PD 5)
Roosters 18 (PD -13)
Warriors 18 (PD -53)
Eels 16 (PD -17)
Knights 16 (PD -61)
Raiders 14 (PD -83)
Sharks 14 (PD -128)
The Bulldogs and Cowboys need to win eight of their last ten to make 28 points, so can probably be counted out on the basis of their recent form, and of course the Storm are free to book their holiday flights to Fiji as soon as the season ends.
Our run home is split half home, half away, and is a fairly tough schedule. But this could be a blessing in disguise, since it means it will all be in our hands - win against the other contenders and it will a double step towards the Finals - we won't have to hope for losses as much as other years.
Our next game is against the Eels at the Penrose fortress. We should win this one, but unfortunately Craig Bellamy has done his part on behalf of all Australians to get in the way of the Warriors, by not naming Nathan Hindmarsh to the NSW team for Origin III - this means that he will be playing against us this weekend. Thankfully Jarryd Hayne should be out.
What follows that is a tough double - the raging hot Panthers at CUA Stadium, then the Storm at home. Hopefully the Storm will be ambivalent by then about their season - if their wins counted they would be in third place with a bye still to come - but they have just lost three of their last four so maybe the team is finally starting to not care. If we get one win from these two matches it will be a success (or if we lose both but don't do too much damage to our points differential).
Rabbitohs away, then Titans at home are certainly games we can win, with the next game at Sharks a must win. Two out of three would be very nice.
Another home game against the Knights after that should be another thriller if last game is anything to go by - Kiwi Sports Blog is pencilling this in as one to attend.
We'll be doing well to beat the Sea Eagles in Manly, and a home game against the Broncos will test the character of the team if we can get a win there. Then the final game is at Parramatta, a masterstroke of scheduling by the NRL which could determine the seasons of both teams.
Backing the boys this weekend against the Eels, and against the Titans, Sharks, Knights and Broncos, hopefully we won't need this final game to make it in. But with our points differential and potential blowouts against Penrith and Melbourne, it will probably be crucial.
The Boys
Apart from Boy Wonder Kevin Locke ("That little brown bastard" as he is called by Zace Nation) the team did not look good at all last week against the Roosters, and can be counted lucky to get the win out of Christchurch. But we are still hit pretty hard by injured players, some of which might be coming back soon.
Locke shouldn't be out too long according to Doc Mayhew. Sam Rapira will be desperately needed back, and hopefully will be out only a few more weeks - with the form that Russell Packer is in, the two young props will carry us on their shoulders into postseason play. Brent Tate might not play again with the news that he is now rooting for North Queensland, but he is a chance, and would be a welcome upgrade on the sorry Joel Moon, who came crashing back to earth with his performance on Sunday. Brett Seymour is supposed to be almost healthy, but Isaac John has been named again this weekend, so it could be another week on the sauce for Busta.
The news that everyone's favourite Australian Steve Price won't be able to return this year, and that we have seen the last of him, was some of the saddest news of the year. Much sadness was brought on when I saw the interview with him after the announcement.
For anyone who hasn't seen the One News interview yet with Price, get the tissues ready. The Crowd Goes Wild interview was similarly heartfelt, with quotes from Pricey like "You wish you could just run," and "There's still a lot that I wanted to achieve." If the team can't pull a big win out this weekend to commemorate him, then we should probably close the 2010 account.
The Future
Our weakness will still be in the halves, but with Maloney looking good (600 kicking metres against the Roosters!), plus the promise of John and the breakout possibility of Seymour, it is looking better than it has since 2002. Fullback could be the other weakness if Locke doesn't live up to the hype at his preferred position, because keeping Hohaia there is a weakness.
We will have bona fide game breakers in the centres and wings, with Inu, Vatuvei, Matai, Locke, and Ropati. Ropati becomes the man with the target on his chest, who has to learn how to catch and make the smart play, which may be a step too far for Jerome. But that is a very good lineup - even with Inu's poor form at the Eels, you get the feeling that the Warriors 'bro' environment will be just what he needs to make a resurgence. After all, the Smiling Assassin is only 23.
We may have the best young props in the league, who are only getting better and could become the best in the game for the next ten years. Packer is a beast and just works non-stop - the amount of tackles he makes, even in one set, is amazing. Rapira has the capability to make busting runs and is raw power on the ball. Hopefully little brother Steve will turn out the same.
Aaron Heremaia shows promise as our hooker of the future, with Ian Henderson looking like a very nice backup - perhaps the much criticised decision to let Nathan Fien go was a wise move after all.
And our second rowers of Mannering, Luck, and Mateo will combine a defensive wall with a ridiculous attacker in Mateo, who combines the ball skills of a halfback and the body of a prop with pace and offloads. Nothing but good can come from a player like that with the Warriors.
That leaves us with a bench of Henderson, Matulino, Brown, and Kuma - all good injection players.
That Warriors team, on paper, looks good enough to duplicate the fourth place finish from 2007, even without the veteran influence of Price. Mannering and Lucky will need to develop as the leadership team, while a lot will depend on the continued good play of Maloney, Heremaia, and Ropati. Then again, since it is the Warriors, they could just as easily morph into a reckless, offload happy, defensively shocking cellar dweller. But it is definitely a team to get excited about.
Solid and informative post. I like about the warriors 2010 that it doesnt seem to matter what team we put on the field, we have a decent shot at winning or getting close. A team with less depth would be gone by now. I think we will lose to the eels in at least one of those two games and possibly both penrith and melbourne but with troops filtering back i think we can win all of those other games.
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