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Thursday, June 24, 2010

A Chronology of Draft Day Trades



There's something about draft day that compels NBA General Managers to drop their usual frugal, conservative approach to player movement, and instead go with their hunches.  Some are good, like Donnie Walsh's decision to take Reggie Miller instead of hometown favourite Steve Alford, and some are terrible, like Stu Inman taking Sam Bowie ahead of the greatest player of all time.  Kiwi Sports Blog has scoured the draft archives for existence of the phenomenon of draft day trades - when a GM feels that he has to do anything possible to get his hands on another player.  As can be seen in the most significant examples, one team is left with nothing but regret in exchange.  No doubt we will see the trigger pulled on a few trades today.  Will one of them be for the next Bill Russell, the next Scottie Pippen?



Criteria: One of the players in the trade must either be a gigantic flop, or become an All-Star, preferably a multiple All-Star.  The trade has to be lopsided.  The trade must take place in the heat of the moment, on draft day.


Key: The Guilty Team is in red, being the team that is the donkey of the trade.  The Sneaky Team is in blue, being the team that took advantage of the donkeyThe Temptation is in orange, which are the players that the donkey just couldn't pass up.  And The Player That the Donkey Thought Was Expendable is in green.

1956 - In a stacked draft that featured Hall of Famers Tom Heinsohn, Bill Russell, K.C. Jones, Elgin Baylor, and Sam Jones, Boston came out on top.  At the time the NBA was desperate for home fans, and allowed a home team to forfeit their regular pick to have first choice at a local player.  Boston did this for Tom Heinsohn.  But coach Red Auerbach wanted a defensive center, and had his eyes on Bill Russell.  The St Louis Hawks were willing to trade him, but only for Celtics star Ed Macauley, and young prospect Cliff Hagan.  It took a lot of debate, but Red eventually agreed to the trade.  The Celtics also used their second pick to snag K.C. Jones.

Ed Macauley went on to play one more season at a high level for his hometown St Louis team.  Cliff Hagan became a good player and a perennial All-Star.  Bill Russell's destiny was to average 22 rebounds a game for 13 seasons, and win eleven championships.  For giving away one of the biggest winners in history, St Louis earns a place on this list.  What would have happened if this trade never happened?  The Celtics would still have a good team, but without the defensive force of Russell in the middle, would they win 11?  Would the Hawks still be in St Louis?  Any trade that gives away Bill Russell has to be the most significant draft day trade ever.

1957 - This time it was the Minneapolis Lakers who thought they could snatch a franchise player with a blockbuster draft day trade.  They had their eyes on number one overall pick "Hot" Rod Hundley, owned by the Cincinnati Royals.  A platter of players was served up by both sides, but the centerpiece from the Lakers was Clyde Lovelette, who was just coming off back to back 20-13 seasons.  Lovelette continued that high level of play for another four seasons, and was inducted to the Hall of Fame, while "Hot" Rod flamed out, playing only six seasons, his best season featuring 12 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists per game.

Interesting 1957 wrinkle - Hall of Famer Sam Jones originally declared for the draft in 1956, and was selected by the Lakers.  But he returned to college, thus voiding the NBA rules, and was ineligible.  He declared again in 1957, and was selected by.... The Boston Celtics, giving the Celtics four Hall of Famers through the draft in two years.  In Boston he teamed up with K.C. Jones to form the offensive backcourt that won 8 championships together.

1973 - It seems the Cleveland Cavaliers' front office troubles go way back.  On draft day 1973, the Cavs had their eyes on a pair of Jims, Jim Brewer and Jim O'Brien.  They traded for the Portland Trail Blazers' first rounder and third rounder to get them.  O'Brien went off to the ABA, so the Cavs really just got Jim Brewer, who averaged 5 points and 6 rebounds for 9 seasons, with only 9 starts in his career.  Here's what they gave up for him.  John Johnson, who averaged 12-5-3 for 12 seasons, with his best season of 16-7-5 coming in... 1973 - the year after the Cavs traded him.  Rick Roberson, who played three more seasons, and averaged 13-10 the year after leaving the Cavs.  And, a Lakers pick the Cavs had the rights to, which became Barry Parkhill, who played only 3 seasons.

That is bad enough, but what puts this trade on the list is what the Cavs gave up for Rick Roberson the year before.  The Lakers traded him to the Cavs for a 1972 pick and two 1973 picks.  The 1972 pick was the best Jim so far, Jim Price, who was a useful guard for the Lakers, averaging 15-4-5 and 2 steals (made an All-Star in 1975) before becoming the Quentin Richardson of his generation, traded to four teams in four years.  The 1973 picks became Kermit Washington (All-Star in 1980) and Billy Schaeffer.  None of these players were worthy of superstardom by themselves, but when a team gives up five players for one Jim that is inferior to all of them, that team makes the list.

1974 - The Cavaliers redeemed themselves only one season later, taking advantage of the Seattle Supersonics, who wanted to move up and draft Tommy Burleson.  In exchange for the Cavs' third overall pick, they gave up their eighth overall pick and their journeyman backup swingman, Dick Snyder.  The Cavs selected Campy Russell with the Sonics pick.  Snyder contributed to the Cavs for two and a half more seasons, while Russell became a scoring forward, and was made an All-Star in 1979.  The 7'2" Burleson had two good seasons to start his career, before getting injured and being out of the league in 7 years.  Not a bad roll of the dice by Seattle, but it didn't work out.  The excitement of draft day strikes again.

1984 - The depth of the 1984 draft (Hakeem, Jordan, etc) was not lost on the Cavaliers, who decided to have another go at trading up for a franchise player.  They acquired the sixth pick from the Washington Bullets, and selected notable bust Melvin Turpin, who would play only five seasons, averaging 8-4.  They surrendered All-Star Cliff Robinson to the Bullets and their 12th overall pick to the Sonics, which became Tim McCormick.  Robinson played another five seasons at a high level, averaging 17-7 and 2 assists, while McCormick turned out to be a much better player than Turpin, starting 79 games for Philly in 1986-7, with averages of 12-7.  The Bullets also snagged Gus Williams from Seattle in the same trade, who averaged 20 points, 7 assists and two steals the following year.

1986 - Even though the trade took place the day before the draft, the 76ers trade of the number one overall pick to the Cavaliers as a money saver needs a mention.  It's the type of trade Robert Sarver would be proud of, and which the NFL draft seems to be heading for each year with their rookie pay scale.  The 76ers traded the pick for Roy Hinson and cash.  Hinson turned out to be a good fringe starter for the next five years at a cheap price.  But the Cavs selected Brad Daugherty, who became the franchise player and a five time All-Star, the type of player you should draft no matter what your financial situation.

The Cavaliers did a good job on draft day 1986, also trading a 1989 second round pick to the Dallas Mavericks for the rights to Mark Price, the four time All-Star who paired with Daugherty to make the Cavs a powerhouse (the 1989 pick became Jeff Hodge, who did not play in the NBA).  That's five straight trades that have involved Cleveland.  They are scored 3-2 in the Cavs' favour, but it still is amazing that they were so willing to take such risks on draft day.  It could be why they had nothing go right for the franchise until Lebron James was served up, handing them the choice on a platter and daring them to decline it.  No surprise, in that 13 year period, the team went through eleven coaches (Fitch, Albeck, Musselman, Delaney, Kloppenburg, Daly, Musselman again, Nissalke, Karl, Littles, Wilkens).

1987 - Possibly the second most significant draft day trade, after the Bill Russell trade.  The Bulls wanted to move up from eighth overall to fifth, to be able to draft Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen.  The Sonics didn't even want that much for their pick - giving away the fifth pick and a 1989 first rounder, for the Bulls' eighth overall pick, their 1989 first rounder and 1988 second rounder.  None of the other four players selected (Jeff Sanders, Olden Polynice, Sylvester Gray, and B.J. Armstrong) became anything close to the player Pippen was.  The significance of the trade is easy to see - how would His Airness have done without his right hand man?  Would the Bulls have won six?

1989 - A couple of strange trades between the Sonics and the Warriors mark this years draft.  The Warriors traded their 16th overall pick (which became Dana Barros) to the Sonics for the Warriors' 1990 first rounder.  All well and good, the Warriors decided this year's draft didn't hold that much talent and wanted to have a go next year.  Barros wasn't even that good apart from one All-Star season in 1995.  But then, in the same offseason, the Warriors traded that 1990 first rounder back to the Sonics for Alton Lister, who would give the Warriors four seasons of 4 point games.  That 1990 first rounder then became Gary Payton, someone who has been described as "The best Sonic ever," "The NBA's reigning high scorer among point guards," "As complete a guard as there ever was," etc.  Payton paired with Shawn Kemp (also acquired through trade) and made a formidable Sonics team in the early 90s.  So the Sonics sold Alton Lister to the Warriors for Dana Barros and one of the greatest point guards to ever play.  Stunning.

1993 - Quite a blockbuster went down on draft day 1993.  The Orlando Magic traded Chris Webber, the number one overall pick, to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Penny Hardaway (the third overall pick), plus first rounders in 1996 (Todd Fuller), 1998 (Vince Carter), and 2000 (Mike Miller).  If we add up the All-Star games, Webber has five, Carter has eight, Hardaway has four.  Cancelling out who got value from all the draft picks, because it is too complicated, the clincher is that the Warriors gave away all that value, but Webber only gave them one season before they traded him for, guess who, Todd Fuller and Vince Carter, with Chris Mihm thrown in as well (all as draft picks, all of whom had found their way to the Washington Bullets in the meantime).  On the other hand, the Magic got six quality seasons from Hardaway before he was traded.  So, the Golden State Warriors are the goat of draft day 1993, at the expense of the Orlando Magic, but only sort of.

1995 - Two draft day trades gave away an All-Star in 1995.  Antonio McDyess, along with Randy Woods, was dealt to the Denver Nuggets by the Los Angeles Clippers for Brent Barry and Rodney Rogers.  Barry went on to be a solid role player and defensive stopper, while Rogers turned into a scoring sixth man.  But only Dice was made an All-Star, in 2001.  And, his 20-10-2 year in 1999 earned him a place on the All-NBA Third Team.

Worse was the Portland Trail Blazers' attempt to move up to the eighth pick, where they picked Shawn Respert.  Respert averaged 4 points for his career, and was a huge flop.  The mistake was giving away Theo Ratliff to the Detroit Pistons, who would go on to play 15 seasons (and counting), becoming a block artist - he led the league in three seasons, and was made an All-Star in 2001.

1996 - Ray Allen and a first rounder (Rasho Nesterovic) in 1998 were traded to the Milwaukee Bucks by the Minnesota Timberwolves for Stephon Marbury.  While both Allen and Marbury had outstanding careers, Allen made 9 All-Star games and will be a Hall of Famer.  He is also one of the most likable NBA players of the last ten years, while Marbury's batshit craziness will probably overshadow his statistically impressive years in the NBA backwaters of Minnesota.

1998 - A number of big draft day trades here, even if Kobe Bryant's famous trade isn't eligible.  One of the biggest 'oops' moves in NBA draft day history, when Dirk Nowitzki and Pat Garrity were traded from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Dallas Mavericks for Tractor Traylor.  Whatever the Bucks saw in Traylor, who averaged 4 points per game for his seven seasons in the league, they didn't see it in Nowitzki, who has made nine consecutive All-Star games since 2002, and has been in four All-NBA First Teams.  He may be the best white player in the league still, 12 years after he was drafted, just narrowly edging out Steve Nash.  Even Pat Garrity has had a better career than Traylor.  Terrible heat of the moment trade by Milwaukee.


The other one was the Toronto Raptors trading Antawn Jamison to the Golden State Warriors for Vince Carter (amazing that Vince Carter's rights were traded by the Warriors three times - the first Chris Webber trade in 1993, the second Chris Webber trade in 1994, and now Jamison in 1998).  Once again here, the Warriors are the goat, acquiring the underwhelming, undersized Jamison and giving away Carter in his prime, which he hit almost straight away.  Carter would have been ideal for Nellieball as well, maybe the fact that Don Nelson was coaching in Dallas at the time deprived the world of a Warriors team to rival the Lakers in the 2000s.

2001 - Pau Gasol was sent to the Vancouver Grizzlies along with Brevin Knight and Lorenzen Wright.  In return, the Atlanta Hawks received Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Jamaal Tinsley.  Abdur-Rahim continued his strong play for at least another four years, while Tinsley almost immediately became a good assists man.  Knight and Wright were nothing more than solid role players, but Pau Gasol has turned into a superstar in the last few years.  This isn't a hugely lopsided trade at all, but ten straight years of strong play from Gasol trumps the back end of Abdur-Rahim's career.  The Grizzlies would have a stronger case if not for the fact that their GM Chris Wallace used Gasol to create a new Lakers dynasty, treating us to images like this and this.

2002 - The Denver Nuggets had their eye on a new frontcourt combination of Marcus Camby and Nene.  They were given them, along with Mark Jackson, by the (pre-Isiah) New York Knicks.  The Nuggets gave up Frank Williams and Maciej Lampe and the new king of draft day trades, Antonio McDyess.  Williams and Lampe were marginal NBA players, but what makes this a terrible trade is that Dice had suffered a knee injury the previous season that changed him from a high flying, athletic All-Star to a hobbled role player.  He had only played ten games in the previous season.  Camby had also had an injury shortened season, so both teams were banking on the players they acquired coming back just as strong.  Unfortunately for the Knicks, Camby bounced back eventually, Dice did not.  In addition, Nene became a quality role player.

2004 - The Orlando Magic acquired Jameer Nelson, giving back a 2005 first rounder (Julius Hodge) to the Denver Nuggets.  Who is Julius Hodge?  I'll tell you who - he is someone who played 23 games total in the league before being waived, never to be seen again.  Nelson, on the other hand, is one of the best point guards in the East and is steadily getting better each year.  Seems like a classic don't-want-to-pay-him scenario by Denver, but keeping Nelson would have solved their point guard problem that troubled them until Chauncey Billups returned to them in 2008.

Draft day saw another big trade centred upon Antawn Jamison.  The Dallas Mavericks traded him away, getting back Devin Harris, Christian Laettner, and Jerry Stackhouse from the Washington Wizards.  Jamison immediately went on to have his best seasons with Washington, being voted an All-Star in 2005 and 2008.  Stackhouse and Laettner were at the ends of their career (even though Stack is still playing now, six years after his career took a knee/groin-related nosedive), and Devin Harris didn't play well until people started saying he could be better than Jason Kidd, but by that time he was already in New Jersey.

2005 - The Utah Jazz got their next John Stockton in Deron Williams, and gave up two first rounders in the same draft and a 2006 first rounder to the Portland Trail Blazers for him.  All that to move up only three places, as one of the first rounders was the sixth overall pick.  But it turned out to be a stroke of genius, as the players given up - Martell Webster, Linas Kleiza, and Joel Freeland (still in Europe) - have not turned out to be as good as Williams.  But maybe Utah should have only moved up two places, and snagged Chris Paul instead?  The jury is still out on that one.

2006 - A LOT happened on draft day 2006.  The Portland Trail Blazers finally got it right, trading for LaMarcus Aldridge and a 2007 second rounder (Demetris Nichols).  They gave up Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khryapa to the Chicago Bulls, which was only a change of two picks.  Thomas showed promise of being a Josh Smith-esque sort of player, but his most recent season has been a big setback for that idea.  But Aldridge has developed into a good second banana on the Blazers, and isn't far from being a consistent All-Star.  Their other masterstroke was trading for Brandon Roy, giving up Randy Foye at the expense of the Timberwolves, which is ridiculously cheap for Portland's franchise player.


The Memphis Grizzlies also found their franchise player in Rudy Gay, who the Houston Rockets sent to them along with Stromile Swift in exchange for Shane Battier.  No one likes to criticise the Rockets front office and their basketball sabermetrics that can uncover a diamond hidden in a draft class as devoid as the Grand Canyon, but this one seems like a mistake.  Battier may be a defensive god, and may be the No-Stats All-Star, but a young player like Rudy Gay, with his skills and athleticism, seems like a much better player for the future than Battier.

Also on that day, Scrooge McDuck traded Rajon Rondo and Brian Grant to the Celtics for cash and a 2007 pick, which turned out to be Rudy Fernandez, who was then traded for cash.  For more on Scrooge McDuck's antics, see here.  That's four draft day trades involving potential All-Stars - there must have something in the water at the Garden that day.

2007 - The Ray Allen trade that kickstarted a Celtics' renaissance.  Along with KSBFNBAP Big Baby Davis, the Boston Celtics acquired the legendary shooting guard by giving up Jeff Green, Wally World, Delonte James-West, and Trent Plaisted (still in Europe) to the Seattle Supersonics.  That's a lot to give up, but it still feels like Boston got RayRay for a fairly cheap price.  And because Jeff Green, the best player the Sonics acquired, has been underwhelming, Boston gets the best of this one.

2008 - O.J. Mayo, Greg Buckner, Marko Jaric, and Antoine Walker were traded to Memphis, while Kevin Love and the corpses of Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins were shipped to Minnesota, along with Mike Miller.  Given that almost everyone except Miller is either in Europe or barely alive, this trade is about Mayo and Love.  You get the feeling both will develop into solid players - they value defence and appear to work hard.  If the 2008 draft was ranked in tiers, Derrick Rose and Brook Lopez would be on the top tier, while Mayo, Love, Russell Westbrook, and Eric Gordon would be on the second tier (but not Michael Beasley).  In terms of fit, Love is better for the T'Wolves, especially if Al Jefferson is on the way out, even if this is only because the Memphis roster is so messed up that only Lebron James would fit well.  It does look promising that Mayo is co-captain with Rudy Gay, who pretty much has his first three months rent paid on an apartment in Manhattan already, meaning that Mayo will be the sole captain and leader.  Memphis appears committed to building around Mayo (bad news for Memphis fans though - Chris Wallace has been extended for another three years).  As yet, it isn't clear who got the better out of the trade, and it probably ended up being the best move for both teams.  But Memphis absolutely should have held onto Kevin Love for the Gay-Love combination - for that, they get the goat status.

2009 - There wasn't too much that went down last year.  Sure, Ty Lawson, Jon Brockman, and Chase Budinger changed hands, who could turn out to be good players at some point.  But All-Stars?  It's a stretch.  The only possible All-Star traded on draft day, on the basis of his rookie season, was Marcus Thornton.  What a steal by New Orleans he was, who gave up second rounders this year and in 2012 for him.  The Hornets staff must have seen something in him that no one else did, showing the value of a well calculated draft day trade.


If anything, this list proves only what we knew, that a team's fortune can be made or lost with one little trade.  So much is at risk, and the vacuum of draft day, with analysts predicting your moves and criticising your decisions, greatly heightens that risk.  What will happen today?  Will Philly decide that Evan Turner and Derrick Favors don't fit with Brand and Iguodala, and trade their pick?  Will someone decide a shot at a big free agent is more important than drafting someone who turns out to be a multiple All-Star?  In ten years, who will be the donkey of the 2010 Draft?  It is the biggest test of a GM's ability, and it is all in the public eye.  Let's enjoy it.

8 comments:

  1. STU INMAN DIDN'T DRAFT KOBE BRYANT

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  2. This article is so inaccurate.

    Carter never played for the warriors, the rights to his draft pick may have been traded many times before the draft, but carter never played a game for the warriors, no less been traded three times.

    Try once! On draft day!

    The only thing I agree with is that he was traded in his prime.... which was before he ever played an NBA game!

    ReplyDelete
  3. @anonymous2 Yes, I did mean that to say that Vince Carter's rights had been traded three times by the same team - even if they didn't know that pick would turn out to be Vince Carter. It is just interesting that they were so against holding onto that pick, but it turned into someone ideal for their system.

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  4. bro your blog is mean

    just been reading all your nba articles, crack up and insightful stuff

    ReplyDelete
  5. oh come...really? Kobe for Divac not mentioned? haha. This is no less important than the Pippen trade.

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  6. @anonymous3 Thanks! Appreciate it.

    @anonymous4 True, Kobe would be one of the biggest trades, but it wasn't on draft day - was two weeks later, after much "I'm not going to Charlotte" by Kobe and "Hi, I'm Jerry Buss."

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  7. What if Kevin Love is in Memphis without sacrificing their pick on Mayo? A Gay-Love-Mayo trio! Nice surnames!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Good start, you've got a good blog space going up and running nicely. Thanks for sharing.Keep posting interesting matters here.


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