Some of the NBA Offseason, and the Fantasy Fallout

Apart from the obvious constitution of the Super Best Friends in Miami, Kiwi Sports Blog is highly excited about a number of smaller player movements that have happened so far this offseason.  Even though it isn't the most exciting thing happening right now (the second Spanish Armada, the resurgence of the All Blacks lineout and Mils Muliaina, the emerging of the Warriors as contenders, the craziness of NFL drafts featuring Peyton Manning selected second overall and Rashard Mendenhall ahead of Ray Rice - see right), but there is just something about NBA teams transforming that is fascinating - either like watching a masterpiece being painted, or watching a train wreck.  To avoid this being the longest blog post of all time, I have only looked at a few teams - the Heat, the Spurs, the Bulls, and the three-way currently underway between the Raptors, Suns, and Bobcats.



Miami Heat

More huge news for the Heat recently, RealGM reports (here and here).  If it is true that Udonis Haslem has committed to staying in Miami for less money, and that Mike Miller has signed a 5 year, $30 million deal, then the Heat are now truly to be feared.  They still lack a starting center beyond Joel Anthony, but a sidekicks lineup of Chalmers, Haslem, and Miller isn't a bad start.  If it is true about Haslem and Miller, then they are taking a significant paycut - they received $7.1 million and $9.75 million last year, respectively.  Both could have received a much bigger contract at other teams with cap space to throw around, so it seems true that veterans will take a paycut for a chance at a ring, impending lockout or not.  There is a downside to the signings though - it makes them the fourth and fifth best players on the team, and so they need to get minutes at SG and PF.  Unfortunately for the Heat, that means small ball, which means Bosh will have to slide to center for portions of the game, which won't cut it against top teams.

It looks pretty bleak for Pat Riley when looking at the NBA's free agent tracker, unless more veterans decide to 'Pull a Udonis'.  Kiwi Sports Blog recommends chasing Earl Watson, Will Bynum, Jason Williams, Theo Ratliff, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jerry Stackhouse, Kurt Thomas, and Shaq, all useful guys that could possibly take the veteran's minimum for a ring (except Bynum who, although a restricted FA, is just such a bargain that he should be pursued).  Riley should stay the hell away from Iverson and McGrady (as should most other teams), and he is probably smart enough to do that.  The best option?  Sean Marks.

Fantasy Fallout

The concentration of high usage rates has led to some instant reactions from ESPN's experts, dropping James to 3rd, Wade to 12th, and Bosh to 22nd.  Durant over LeBron is certainly a safe pick, but Wade below Steve Nash and Deron Williams is a little strange.  Dwyane's domination of the ball will come down, as will his scoring.  However, it isn't unreasonable to think that his percentages could even increase, while his assists, blocks, and steals, which are his strength, should at least stay the same.  As for Bosh, with nobody to rebound (yet) except him and LeBron, there shouldn't be too much damage there - he might even start blocking more than one shot a game.  But because of his scoring likely to take a serious hit, and his high 28% usage rate to become more like 21% or 22% (like Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol), the risk of him having a David West season is high enough to leave him down in the mid 20s.  I would rank James 2nd, Wade 5th, and leave Bosh at 22nd.  Chalmers could become like Derek Fisher, but with more steals, while Haslem will take a drop from last year's stats, meaning both aren't really rosterable in a 150 player league anymore.  Mike Miller is still a risk as well, becoming more like Marvin Williams or Jared Dudley, late round flyers whose minutes will be inconsistent.

San Antonio Spurs

Spurs savant R.C. Buford made three of the best moves of the offseason which have slipped largely under the radar.  First, late last season he extended Manu Ginobili for three years at $39 million - with the craziness of the Summer of LeBron, someone probably would have thrown a max contract at Manu.  Second, his anonymous death letters to Richard Jefferson finally bore fruit, as Jefferson opted out of a $14 million final year, giving the Spurs vital cap space for their third move.  The third move was luring Spanish League MVP, Brazilian center Tiago Splitter to the team (he was drafted by the Spurs at the end of the first round back in 2007).  Not only that, it's a bargain contract, three years at $10.9 million with $3.4 million in 2010-11, for someone who could turn out like Marc Gasol once Timmy retires.

As rolls of the dice go, it seems a lot better than poor contracts signed this offseason like Amir Johnson (five years, $34 million), Chris Duhon (four years, $15 million), Wesley Matthews (five years, $33 million), Travis Outlaw (five years, $35 million), Drew Gooden (five years, $32 million), Brendan Haywood (six years, $55 million), and of course, the two strangest contracts - Darko Milicic (four years, $20 million) and Joe Johnson (six years, $119 million).  All this while Rod Benson remains unsigned.  Insane.

With the Spurs having already resigned Matt Bonner, and Roger Mason close to a deal, last year's team is largely intact minus Jefferson.  If they can pick up another bargain SF - Matt Barnes could be a good option, Jonathan Bender might be an exciting move - then they may be good enough to get beaten in the Western Semi-Finals again.  Unfortunately, any more than that is hoping a bit much.  But at least they have completed an absolute gem of a Rookie of the Year race, with five horses worth a fly on Sportsbook - John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Evan Turner, Blake Griffin, and Splitter.  Also, "Tiago Splitter" may be one of the greatest names to ever play in the NBA, along with "World B. Free", and "Sean Marks".

Fantasy Fallout

Nothing really changes for the Spurs players.  Taking a flyer on Splitter would be a brave move, given he is likely to stay well behind Timmy and DeJuan Bear on the depth chart.  All that changes is age, which makes Manu and Duncan drop a little bit due to injury risk, with a corresponding increase for Tony Parker.  George Hill is a huge riser, given his impressive season and playoffs, putting him in Lou Williams territory.

Chicago Bulls

Luol Deng isn't fit to clean talcum powder off LeBron James' shoulders, but he is no scrub starter.  Despite missing the big prize, the Bulls have undeniably got much better.  SG was their gaping hole before the offseason started (Jannero Pargo and Flip Murray being the best on the roster), and it still is the weakness, but they have a couple of great role players who have signed at a reasonable rate.  Kyle Korver is last year's leader in 3P% (53.6%!), and is the perfect guy for the stand-in-the-corner-and-wait-for-the-pass three, while J.J. Redick showed last year that he is more than just an NCAA star (for just an NCAA star, see here), developing into a smart player, both on offence and defence (Orlando still has the option to match the offer to Redick).

Unfortunately for fans of Taj Gibson like me and Taj Gibson himself, the Bulls also signed Carlos Boozer.  It would have been great to see how Gibson plays when he isn't bothered by a mysterious plantar fasciitis ailment (whatever that is), but Boozer is a stud, and gives the Bulls a fearsome frontcourt.  It gives them two outstanding rebounders who can also score in the post well enough to command occasional double teams, with Noah possibly being a good enough defender to single cover Dwight Howard, which seems to be the formula for beating Orlando (see Eastern Finals 2010 - Perkins, Kendrick).  As long as Rose continues his strong play as leader of the team, and Boozer doesn't mail it in now that he has his money, Chicago could progress past Charlotte/Milwaukee in the first round, and Orlando/Boston in the second round to come up against Miami.

Fantasy Fallout

This could be a great thing for Derrick Rose, bumping up his assist totals.  But until he consistently hits threes and gets steals, his fantasy ceiling is destined to be Tony Parker.  Boozer remains pretty much in the same role, so should get the same stats, but because of the whole contract year fear, there is some downside and not a whole lot of up.  Noah should have a much higher ADP than last year now that the secret is out, making him a top 40 player.  But otherwise, the team is largely the same.

Charlotte Bobcats, Toronto Raptors, and Phoenix Suns

This group has brought us the most exciting threesome so far, with Toronto reported to receive Tyson Chandler, Boris Diaw, and Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix getting Hedo Turkoglu, and Charlotte getting Jose Calderon and Reggie Evans.  It seems that Michael Jordan is reluctant to let go of Chandler and his $12.7 million salary, so the trade is currently stalled, but could still happen.

Who knows what Bryan Colangelo and the Raptors are up to?  Getting rid of Calderon and Turkoglu were good moves, who didn't seem to fit with the team and were paid way too much ($18.8 million between them last year).  But giving Miami Chris Bosh in a sign and trade gave them a massive trade exception that could be used to acquire quality guys with poor contracts that no one else could afford.  Boris Diaw seems to be one of those guys, but the problem is that he plays the same position as the Raptors' new franchise guy - Andrea Bargnani.  Add the 34 million dollar man, Amir Johnson, to that and the Raptors have a bit of a logjam at PF.  Barbosa is another overpaid role player, owed $7.6 million next year.  While he could be a good fit with a speedier Raptors team, there is another young player they should be developing playing the same position - Demar Derozan.  As for Tyson Chandler, they did have a hole at center, but Chandler is hardly the man to plug it.  How many more teams are going to think Chandler is their answer?  Offensively challenged centers that are good at dunking should all go play with Chris Paul for a year in the hopes it will redefine them like it has Chandler.  Emeka Okafor must have had the same idea, but unfortunately Darren Collison, despite his best efforts, couldn't quite make him look good enough.  Dwight Howard would probably be proclaimed better than Wilt Chamberlain after a year with Paul.

The Suns are doing their best to replace Stoudemire.  Like the Spurs, they have the same problem of age with Steve Nash, meaning they have to try to win now.  Rebuilding is not an option.  So far, they have done a good job with additions of Hakim Warrick, Turkoglu, and Josh Childress (sign and trade with the Hawks for a second round pick).  Importantly, they also resigned Channing Frye, and Grant Hill picked up his player option for next year.  Unfortunately, they are expected to lose Louis Amundsen, but overall, they have given themselves a shot at success without Amare with their moves.

As for Michael Jordan and the Bobcats, resigning Tyrus Thomas had to be done, and trading away Tyson Chandler for Jose Calderon isn't a bad move, seeing as Raymond Felton has been poached by the Knicks (and good riddance, KSB says, I hope he has the time of his life).  Calderon is a better player than Felton, and Diaw's trade opens up the starting job for Thomas.  He seems to be a player that will thrive with consistent minutes, so hopefully this is his year (Diaw averaged a massive 35 minutes last year, while Thomas was only 21 minutes - in his best year, where he averaged 3.1 steals plus blocks, he was playing only 27 minutes).  Trading Chandler will leave the Bobcats with a pretty significant absence of a starting center, and with Jordan's stated intention to win now, it is pretty essential that they have one.  But Chandler isn't worth $12 million - throw some money at Kyle Fesenko (restricted FA) instead, or work out a trade for in-David-Kahn's-doghouse-for-some-reason Al Jefferson, or left-out-in-the-cold-now-that-Greg-Oden-is-temporarily-healthy Marcus Camby.

Fantasy Fallout

Turkoglu gets a little bump due to playing alongside Steve Nash, but he is still a guy with a heap of downside and negatives, like his terrible FG%, and potential to disappear on random nights.  Because of Grant Hill's age, Childress might be worth a late round pick as he should get quite a few minutes.  Calderon may bounce back from a terrible year where he may have been the bust of the season, but I won't be taking a chance on him before pick 100.  Bargnani, who was all set to have a breakout season and completely dominate up in Canady, will now have to battle with Johnson and Diaw for PF minutes, and should stay around 70-80 in drafts.  But he has a ton of upside and would be worth a reach.  Diaw, on the other hand, should continue his disappearing act from last season and just about fall out of fantasy relevance.

The Rumour Mill keeps on turning, and it seems trades are being accepted and rejected as quickly as new nicknames for LeBron James are being coined.  KSB is still hoping for some improvements to New Jersey, LA Clippers, and Orlando, as well as some more terrible moves by David Kahn.